Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Stade Brestois 29 versus Nice in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nice have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.40 for Nice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 1W, Nice 3W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 42% versus Nice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 42% | Nice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.47 xG and Nice 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.051 / defence 0.851 | Nice attack 0.885 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.413. Data: 43 Stade Brestois 29 games / 43 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 44% | Draw 31% | Nice 25%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Nice 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Nice 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 44% | Draw 31% | Nice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.47 / Nice 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.051 / def 0.851 | Nice attack 0.885 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Nice xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Stade Brestois 29 0 - 1 Nice.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 44% chance of winning, Nice a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Nice?
Record (6 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 2 | Nice 3W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Nice in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Nice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.89x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.20
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.53
1.06
Nice xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.06 for Nice, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 43 games, going 21W 11D 11L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.58 PPG from 43 outings (18W 14D 11L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.58 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.35 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Nice in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Nice in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 11D 11L in their last 43 games (1.72 PPG), while Nice have gone 18W 14D 11L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Nice away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.86 PPG; Nice away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Nice in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nice won 6-0 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
3
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Nice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nice 2-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 41%, Nice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stade Brestois 29) and 41% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Nice in 32%; Nice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 50% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 41% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Nice tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nice defy the odds to beat Stade Brestois 29 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Stade Brestois 29 0-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.47 xG and Nice 1.06 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Nice attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 44% | Draw 31% | Nice 25%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Nice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 42%, Nice 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nice's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.72 PPG, Nice 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.