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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Fri 20 Feb 2026

19:45

Venue

Stade Francis-Le Blé

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Stade Brestois 29 Win

43%

Stade Brestois 29

2.31

23%

Draw

4.26

33%

Marseille

3.00

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.9%

Home win

1 – 2

7.7%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.69

Stade Brestois 29 xG

Total xG

3.15

1.46

Marseille xG

43%
23%
33%
Stade Brestois 29DrawMarseille

2.31

43%

Home win

4.26

23%

Draw

3.00

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

61%

Over 2.5

1.64

39%

Under 2.5

2.56

39%

Over 3.5

2.56

61%

Under 3.5

1.64

21%

Over 4.5

4.76

79%

Under 4.5

1.27

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

63%

BTTS Yes

1.60

37%

BTTS No

2.68

Clean Sheet

23%

Stade Brestois 29

4.31

18%

Marseille

5.43

Win to Nil

10%

Stade Brestois 29

9.99

6%

Marseille

16.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.3 6.2 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
1 7.2 10.6 7.7 3.8 1.4 0.4
2 6.1 8.9 6.5 3.2 1.2 0.3
3 3.4 5.0 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.2
4 1.5 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.692
λ Away (xG) 1.462
Total xG 3.154
League avg home goals 1.500
League avg away goals 1.199
Stade Brestois 29 attack strength 0.951
Stade Brestois 29 defence strength 0.934
Marseille attack strength 1.306
Marseille defence strength 1.186
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56