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Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Le Havre 2-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.46 xG and Le Havre 0.65 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Le Havre attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 57% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 17%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 57%, Le Havre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Le Havre's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.43 PPG, Le Havre 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights