Stade Brestois 29 1-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to Stade Francis-Le Blé to face Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.60 for Auxerre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 0 for Auxerre and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Brestois 29 61% and Auxerre 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 49% | Auxerre 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.69 xG and Auxerre 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.062 / defence 0.883 | Auxerre attack 0.847 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.251. Data: 72 Stade Brestois 29 games / 34 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 55% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 21%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stade Brestois 29 60% | Auxerre 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 55% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.69 / Auxerre 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.062 / def 0.883 | Auxerre attack 0.847 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Auxerre xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 55% chance of winning, Auxerre a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.85x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.16
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.63
0.94
Auxerre xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
4%
26.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.94 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 21W 20D 31L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Auxerre's form line: 27W 23D 22L from 72 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.44 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.29 PPG from 35 outings (12W 9D 14L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 12W 10D 13L from 35 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 20D 31L in their last 72 games (1.15 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 27W 23D 22L in their last 72 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.29 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
2
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Auxerre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 54%, Auxerre 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Stade Brestois 29) and 51% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 60% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 51% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Auxerre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Auxerre 1-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.69 xG and Auxerre 0.94 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 55% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 21%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 49%, Auxerre 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.15 PPG, Auxerre 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.