Saint Etienne 1-3 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Nice (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Saint Etienne face Nice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Nice travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Nice — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nice have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nice — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Nice, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Saint Etienne.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 0–8 with Nice winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Nice have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nice trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 39% versus Nice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 44% | Nice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.44 xG and Nice 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.863 / defence 1.220 | Nice attack 1.122 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.340. Data: 23 Saint Etienne games / 57 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 26% | Nice 45%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Nice 2.22. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 40% | Nice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 26% | Nice 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Saint Etienne 1.44 / Nice 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.863 / def 1.220 | Nice attack 1.122 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Nice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Nice xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Nice kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Saint Etienne 1 - 3 Nice.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Nice part of?
Saint Etienne vs Nice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 29% chance of winning, Nice a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Saint Etienne and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nice?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Nice 3W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Nice in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Nice (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.86x the league average against Nice's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
29%
3.46
26%
3.91
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.27
1.83
Nice xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
5%
21.61
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.83 for Nice, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 11D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.72 PPG from 57 outings (27W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.40 PPG, Nice on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Saint Etienne's home form reads 16W 5D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.38 points per game from 29 outings (10W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.51 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Nice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Nice in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 11D 23L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while Nice have gone 27W 17D 13L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Nice away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.83 PPG; Nice away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Nice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Nice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Nice won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Nice have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Nice 4-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 38%, Nice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Saint Etienne) and 48% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 28% of games; Nice in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 59% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 48% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Nice tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Nice in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Saint Etienne 1-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.44 xG and Nice 1.83 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nice outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against Nice attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 26% | Nice 45%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 44%, Nice 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Nice's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.40 PPG, Nice 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.