Saint Etienne 1-0 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Saint Etienne welcome Montpellier to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Montpellier have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Montpellier have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Saint Etienne 1.00 PPG, Montpellier 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Montpellier and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 3–1 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Montpellier trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 31% versus Montpellier 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 40% | Montpellier 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.78 xG and Montpellier 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.827 / defence 0.941 | Montpellier attack 0.766 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.416. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Saint Etienne games / 45 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 24% | Montpellier 21%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Montpellier 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Montpellier 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 24% | Montpellier 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Saint Etienne 1.78 / Montpellier 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.827 / def 0.941 | Montpellier attack 0.766 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Montpellier xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Montpellier kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Montpellier kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Saint Etienne 1 - 0 Montpellier.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Montpellier part of?
Saint Etienne vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 55% chance of winning, Montpellier a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Saint Etienne and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Montpellier?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Montpellier in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Montpellier (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.13
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.80
1.02
Montpellier xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
28.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.02 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 8D 16L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Montpellier sit at 1.09 PPG from 45 outings (12W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Montpellier — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Saint Etienne's home form reads 13W 3D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Montpellier have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (7W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.20 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 21W 8D 16L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Montpellier away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.91 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Montpellier in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Saint Etienne have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Montpellier?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 5, Montpellier have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Saint Etienne 1-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Montpellier?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 36%, Montpellier 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Saint Etienne) and 64% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 27% of games; Montpellier in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 50% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 64% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Montpellier tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Montpellier 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.78 xG and Montpellier 1.02 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Montpellier attack 0.77 / defence 1.40, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 24% | Montpellier 21%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 40%, Montpellier 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Montpellier's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.