Saint Etienne vs Marseille – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.79x the league average against Marseille's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (1.57x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
20%
5.08
25%
4.08
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.82
1.82
Marseille xG
5.08
20%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
16%
6.16
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
3%
31.27
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.82 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Marseille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.