Saint Etienne 1-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Lille meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's home record at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Lille have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lille have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lille are 0.70 PPG clear of Saint Etienne in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Saint Etienne, 0 for Lille and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lille — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 30% versus Lille 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 38% | Lille 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.87 xG and Lille 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.703 / defence 1.201 | Lille attack 1.027 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.424. Saint Etienne's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Saint Etienne games / 37 Lille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 17% | Draw 26% | Lille 57%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | Lille 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Lille (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Lille 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 17% | Draw 26% | Lille 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Saint Etienne 0.87 / Lille 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.703 / def 1.201 | Lille attack 1.027 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Lille (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Lille xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Lille kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Lille kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Saint Etienne 1 - 0 Lille.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Lille part of?
Saint Etienne vs Lille is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 17% chance of winning, Lille a 57% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Saint Etienne and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Lille?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 2 | Lille 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Lille in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Lille (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.70x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lille's attack (1.03x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
17%
5.85
26%
3.85
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.63
1.76
Lille xG
5.85
17%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
3%
33.91
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.7 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.76 for Lille, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Lille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 18W 7D 12L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille's form line: 18W 11D 8L from 37 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.76 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L).
On the road, Lille have gone 6W 7D 5L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.54 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Lille in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Lille in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 18W 7D 12L in their last 37 games (1.65 PPG), while Lille have gone 18W 11D 8L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Lille away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.83 PPG; Lille away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Lille in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
1
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Lille?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Lille have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Lille 4-1 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 39%, Lille 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Saint Etienne) and 39% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lille in 39%; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 56% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 39% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Lille tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lille in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Lille 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Lille 1-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.87 xG and Lille 1.76 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.70 / defence 1.20 against Lille attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 3/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 17% | Draw 26% | Lille 57%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 38%, Lille 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lille's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.65 PPG, Lille 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.