Saint Etienne 3-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Auxerre travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Auxerre's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Saint Etienne's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 1 for Auxerre and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 32% versus Auxerre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 39% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.66 xG and Auxerre 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.719 / defence 1.026 | Auxerre attack 0.778 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.322. Saint Etienne's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Saint Etienne games / 6 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Auxerre 4.55. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 40% | Auxerre 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Saint Etienne 1.66 / Auxerre 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.719 / def 1.026 | Auxerre attack 0.778 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Auxerre xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Auxerre kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Saint Etienne 3 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Auxerre part of?
Saint Etienne vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 49% chance of winning, Auxerre a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Saint Etienne and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Auxerre?
Record (4 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Auxerre in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.38
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.72
1.06
Auxerre xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
4%
24.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.06 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 44 games, going 21W 10D 13L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.82 PPG from 44 outings (23W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.66 PPG, Auxerre on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Saint Etienne's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.82 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 21W 10D 13L in their last 44 games (1.66 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 23W 11D 10L in their last 44 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Auxerre away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.90 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Auxerre in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Auxerre won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Auxerre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Auxerre?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 33%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Saint Etienne) and 52% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 62% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 52% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Auxerre tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Auxerre 3-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.66 xG and Auxerre 1.06 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.72 / defence 1.03 against Auxerre attack 0.78 / defence 1.44, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 39%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.66 PPG, Auxerre 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.