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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rennes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stade Brestois 29.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rennes beat Stade Brestois 29 3-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.04 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.16 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.21 / defence 0.98 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 58% | Draw 21% | Stade Brestois 29 21%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 61%, Stade Brestois 29 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rennes 1.33 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights