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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Rennes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Rennes 1-4 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.13 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.81 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.89 / defence 0.84 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.54 / defence 0.82, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 22% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 52%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 55%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rennes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights