Rennes 1-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nantes at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Rennes welcome Nantes to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Ligue 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nantes — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.24 xG and Nantes 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.944 / defence 1.073 | Nantes attack 0.778 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.570. Data: 2 Rennes games / 2 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 31% | Draw 34% | Nantes 35%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Nantes 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 31% | Draw 34% | Nantes 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Rennes 1.24 / Nantes 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 0.944 / def 1.073 | Nantes attack 0.778 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.570 • Poisson stance: Nantes (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Nantes xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Nantes kick off?
Rennes vs Nantes kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Nantes?
Rennes 1 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Rennes vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Nantes part of?
Rennes vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 31% chance of winning, Nantes a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rennes and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Nantes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Nantes in?
Rennes (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D. Nantes (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rennes's attack at 0.94x the league average against Nantes's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
31%
3.22
34%
2.91
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.54
1.31
Nantes xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rennes and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Rennes and 1.31 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nantes by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rennes heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Nantes in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Early Season
Nantes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Nantes in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Nantes have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Rennes or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Nantes in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Nantes runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rennes
1
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Nantes?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 7, Nantes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rennes 2-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Nantes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Rennes's games and 50% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Rennes's recent games and 0% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Nantes tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Nantes in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rennes defy the odds to beat Nantes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Nantes 1-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.24 xG and Nantes 1.31 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nantes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Nantes attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 31% | Draw 34% | Nantes 35%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 0%, Nantes 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Nantes arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Rennes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rennes conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.