Rennes 1-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monaco (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rennes face Monaco.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Monaco travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rennes stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rennes have posted 5W 2D 3L at Roazhon Park — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Monaco — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monaco's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Monaco are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Monaco, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Rennes.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Monaco winning.
It is worth noting that Monaco have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Rennes in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rennes 65% and Monaco 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 60% | Monaco 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.32 xG and Monaco 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.176 / defence 0.829 | Monaco attack 1.278 / defence 0.688. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.316. Monaco's defence strength of 0.688 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Rennes games / 40 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 33% | Draw 31% | Monaco 36%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Monaco 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 70% | Monaco 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 33% | Draw 31% | Monaco 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Rennes 1.32 / Monaco 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.176 / def 0.829 | Monaco attack 1.278 / def 0.688 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Monaco (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Monaco xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Monaco kick off?
Rennes vs Monaco kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Monaco?
Rennes 1 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Rennes vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Monaco part of?
Rennes vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 33% chance of winning, Monaco a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rennes and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Monaco?
Record (6 meetings): Rennes 1W | Draws 1 | Monaco 4W.
What form are Rennes and Monaco in?
Rennes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Monaco (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.18) and Monaco's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
33%
3.06
31%
3.20
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.71
1.39
Monaco xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rennes and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Rennes and 1.39 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 11D 15L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 2.08 PPG from 40 outings (25W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monaco carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Rennes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rennes's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 2.11 points per game from 19 outings (12W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 2.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Monaco in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Early Season
Monaco
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Monaco in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Monaco have gone 25W 8D 7L in their last 40 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.53 PPG; Monaco away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Rennes or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Monaco in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Monaco runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2026, when Monaco won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rennes
1
Draws
7
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 2, Monaco have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Monaco 4-0 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rennes at 74%, Monaco at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Rennes and 68% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monaco in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Rennes's games and 63% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Rennes's matches and 68% of Monaco's.
Do Rennes and Monaco tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Monaco in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Rennes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Rennes 1-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.32 xG and Monaco 1.39 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.18 / defence 0.83 against Monaco attack 1.28 / defence 0.69, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 33% | Draw 31% | Monaco 36%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 60%, Monaco 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.