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Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rennes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Rennes 0-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.23 xG and Lille 1.02 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rennes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lille outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 39% | Draw 33% | Lille 28%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 56%, Lille 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Lille's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights