🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Angers 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rennes beat Angers 2-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.51 xG and Angers 0.76 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Angers attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 55% | Draw 27% | Angers 18%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 61%, Angers 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Angers's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rennes 1.42 PPG, Angers 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights