Reims 0-2 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Strasbourg make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Reims have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
Strasbourg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Strasbourg away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Reims against 1.40 for Strasbourg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reims lead 0W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 51% versus Strasbourg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 42% | Strasbourg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.97 xG and Strasbourg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.109 / defence 0.848 | Strasbourg attack 1.073 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.241. Strasbourg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Reims games / 69 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 56% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 21%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Strasbourg 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Reims (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Strasbourg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 56% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Reims 1.97 / Strasbourg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.109 / def 0.848 | Strasbourg attack 1.073 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Reims (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Strasbourg xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Strasbourg kick off?
Reims vs Strasbourg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Strasbourg?
Reims 0 - 2 Strasbourg.
Where is Reims vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Strasbourg part of?
Reims vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 56% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Reims and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Strasbourg?
Record (3 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 3 | Strasbourg 0W.
What form are Reims and Strasbourg in?
Reims (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (1.11) and Strasbourg's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (1.07x) against Reims's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.36
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Reims xG
Total xG
3.09
1.13
Strasbourg xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
3%
34.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Reims and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Reims and 1.13 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Strasbourg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 22W 27D 20L from 69 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 23W 23D 23L across 69 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Reims against 1.33 for Strasbourg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 12W 11D 11L from 34 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 8W 12D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.46 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 61%.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Strasbourg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 22W 27D 20L in their last 69 games (1.35 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 23W 23D 23L in their last 69 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Strasbourg away?
Reims's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.38 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Reims or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Reims
4
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Strasbourg?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Strasbourg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Reims 0-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 53%, Strasbourg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 50% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Reims's games and 62% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 50% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Reims 0-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.97 xG and Strasbourg 1.13 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reims fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Strasbourg outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Strasbourg attack 1.07 / defence 1.24, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 56% | Draw 23% | Strasbourg 21%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Strasbourg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 42%, Strasbourg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Strasbourg's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.35 PPG, Strasbourg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Strasbourg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.