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Prediction vindicated as Strasbourg edge out Reims 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Reims 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.99 xG and Strasbourg 1.48 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reims fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Strasbourg attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 25% | Draw 26% | Strasbourg 48%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 54%, Strasbourg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Strasbourg's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.20 PPG, Strasbourg 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Strasbourg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights