Reims 2-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Strasbourg make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 1 December 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Strasbourg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Reims against 1.00 for Strasbourg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reims lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Strasbourg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 50% versus Strasbourg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 48% | Strasbourg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.23 xG and Strasbourg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.885 / defence 1.114 | Strasbourg attack 0.840 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.075. Data: 51 Reims games / 50 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 38% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 27%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Strasbourg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Strasbourg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 38% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Reims 1.23 / Strasbourg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.885 / def 1.114 | Strasbourg attack 0.840 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Reims (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Strasbourg xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Strasbourg kick off?
Reims vs Strasbourg kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Strasbourg?
Reims 2 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Reims vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Strasbourg part of?
Reims vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 38% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reims and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Strasbourg?
Record (4 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 3 | Strasbourg 1W.
What form are Reims and Strasbourg in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Strasbourg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.89) and Strasbourg's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (0.84x) against Reims's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
38%
2.60
34%
2.92
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Reims xG
Total xG
2.23
1.00
Strasbourg xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Reims and 1.00 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 18W 17D 15L from 50 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 17D 21L across 50 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Reims against 1.06 for Strasbourg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 5W 7D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.22 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 64%.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 17D 15L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 12W 17D 21L in their last 50 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Strasbourg away?
Reims's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.62 PPG; Strasbourg away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Reims or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Reims
4
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Strasbourg?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Strasbourg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Reims 0-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 46%, Strasbourg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 54% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Strasbourg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Reims's recent matches and 62% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 54% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Strasbourg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Strasbourg 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.23 xG and Strasbourg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Strasbourg attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 38% | Draw 34% | Strasbourg 27%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 48%, Strasbourg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Strasbourg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.42 PPG, Strasbourg 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.