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Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reims.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Reims 0-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.65 xG and Saint Etienne 0.93 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reims fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Saint Etienne attack 0.70 / defence 1.42, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 54% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 21%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 50%, Saint Etienne 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.21 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights