Reims 0-2 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris Saint Germain make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Ligue 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 0L. Last five: D D D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Reims have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Paris Saint Germain in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 67% and Paris Saint Germain 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Reims 33% | Paris Saint Germain 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.69 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.133 / defence 1.358 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.141 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.461. Paris Saint Germain bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Reims games / 3 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 27% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 49%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Paris Saint Germain 2.04. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.95 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 67% | Paris Saint Germain 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 27% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 75% | xG Reims 1.69 / Paris Saint Germain 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.133 / def 1.358 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.141 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Reims xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Paris Saint Germain xG
75%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reims 0 - 2 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 27% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Reims and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Paris Saint Germain in?
Reims (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-D. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reims's attack rating (1.13) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.14x) against Reims's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.26.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
27%
3.74
25%
4.08
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Reims xG
Total xG
3.95
2.26
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.74
27%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.04
Clean Sheet
10%
9.61
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
3%
35.93
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Reims and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Reims and 2.26 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reims's recent record stands at 0W 3D 0L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris Saint Germain, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 0L across 3 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 3.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Paris Saint Germain in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Reims or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 4-0 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
5
Draws
3
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Reims, 100% for Paris Saint Germain — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Reims and 100% for Paris Saint Germain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Reims's games and 100% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Reims's matches and 100% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Reims and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Reims 0-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.69 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.26 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reims fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.13 / defence 1.36 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.14 / defence 1.20, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 27% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 49%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 33%, Paris Saint Germain 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Reims managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris Saint Germain managed 2 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.