Reims 1-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nantes make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune II: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Reims, 1.00 for Nantes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Reims register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Nantes in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Reims 1W, Nantes 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Nantes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nantes — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 55% versus Nantes 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 43% | Nantes 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.58 xG and Nantes 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.876 / defence 1.000 | Nantes attack 0.809 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.425. Nantes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Reims games / 51 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 46% | Draw 27% | Nantes 27%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Nantes 3.70. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 70% | Nantes 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 46% | Draw 27% | Nantes 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Reims 1.58 / Nantes 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.876 / def 1.000 | Nantes attack 0.809 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Reims (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Nantes xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Nantes kick off?
Reims vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Nantes?
Reims 1 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Reims vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Nantes part of?
Reims vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 46% chance of winning, Nantes a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Reims and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nantes?
Record (2 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 0 | Nantes 1W.
What form are Reims and Nantes in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Nantes (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.88) and Nantes's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.81x) against Reims's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.75
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Reims xG
Total xG
2.74
1.15
Nantes xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
6%
18.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Reims and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Reims and 1.15 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 51 games, going 13W 20D 18L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 1.31 PPG from 51 outings (17W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Reims against 1.31 for Nantes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 6W 9D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (4W 8D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nantes's season.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.37 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantes in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Nantes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 13W 20D 18L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Nantes have gone 17W 16D 18L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Nantes away?
Reims's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.08 PPG; Nantes away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won 0-3 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Reims
1
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nantes?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 5, Nantes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Reims 1-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Nantes?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 56%, Nantes 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 48% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 32% of games; Nantes in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Reims's games and 64% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Reims's recent games and 48% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Nantes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Nantes 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.58 xG and Nantes 1.15 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nantes landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Nantes attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 46% | Draw 27% | Nantes 27%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, Nantes 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Nantes's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.16 PPG, Nantes 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.