Reims 1-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reims face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Reims welcome Lyon to Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Reims have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Reims have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lyon — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lyon's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reims at 1.70 PPG versus Lyon's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Reims's games and 60% of Lyon's (from Reims's last 10 home games and Lyon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Reims have won 2, Lyon 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended Reims 1–1 Lyon — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lyon trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 67% and Lyon 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 60% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.27 xG and Lyon 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.981 / defence 1.056 | Lyon attack 1.074 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.403. Data: built from Reims's last 45 games and Lyon's last 45.
Result probabilities: Reims 30% | Draw 25% | Lyon 45%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.32 | Draw 3.97 | Lyon 2.24. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reims's last 10 home games and Lyon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reims 70% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 30% | Draw 25% | Lyon 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Reims 1.27 / Lyon 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.981 / def 1.056 | Lyon attack 1.074 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Lyon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Lyon xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Reims vs Lyon kick off?
Reims vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lyon?
Reims 1 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Reims vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Lyon part of?
Reims vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 30% chance of winning, Lyon a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Reims and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Reims vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 45 games and Lyon's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
30%
3.32
25%
3.97
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Reims xG
Total xG
2.86
1.59
Lyon xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
16.26
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Reims and 1.59 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 18W 10D 17L from 45 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 16L across 45 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.42 PPG, Lyon on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 10W 4D 8L from their last 22 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lyon's away record stands at 11W 3D 8L across their last 22 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.49 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Lyon
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Reims vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Lyon in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 10D 17L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while Lyon have gone 21W 8D 16L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.55 PPG; Lyon away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Reims or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Lyon in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Feb 2025, when Lyon won Lyon 4-0 Reims.
Reims's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Reims
4
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lyon?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 2, Lyon have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2025: Lyon 4-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 54%, Lyon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 59% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lyon in 32%; Lyon in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Lyon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 59% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Reims's recent matches and 64% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Lyon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Lyon finished level at 1-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.27 xG and Lyon 1.59 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Lyon attack 1.07 / defence 0.84, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 30% | Draw 25% | Lyon 45%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 60%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.42 PPG, Lyon 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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