Reims 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune II plays host to Reims versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Reims's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 57% versus Clermont Foot 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 36% | Clermont Foot 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.61 xG and Clermont Foot 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.772 / defence 1.182 | Clermont Foot attack 0.874 / defence 1.646. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.202. Reims's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.646 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Reims games / 14 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 44% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 27%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Clermont Foot 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Reims 50% | Clermont Foot 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 44% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Reims 1.61 / Clermont Foot 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.772 / def 1.182 | Clermont Foot attack 0.874 / def 1.646 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Reims (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Clermont Foot xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Reims vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Reims 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Reims vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Clermont Foot part of?
Reims vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 44% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Reims and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.77) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.87x) against Reims's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.42
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Reims xG
Total xG
2.85
1.24
Clermont Foot xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Reims and 1.24 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 2W 7D 5L from 14 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 7L across 14 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Reims against 0.93 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Clermont Foot's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.21 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 2W 7D 5L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Clermont Foot away?
Reims's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.00 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Reims go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Reims
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Clermont Foot 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Reims and 83% for Clermont Foot. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 50% of games; Clermont Foot in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Reims's games and 67% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Reims's matches and 83% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Reims and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.61 xG and Clermont Foot 1.24 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.77 / defence 1.18 against Clermont Foot attack 0.87 / defence 1.65, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 44% | Draw 29% | Clermont Foot 27%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 36%, Clermont Foot 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 0.93 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.