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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Reims 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Reims 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.09 xG and Angers 1.12 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reims fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Angers attack 0.72 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 32% | Draw 34% | Angers 34%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 56%, Angers 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Angers's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.25 PPG, Angers 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights