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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sat 21 Feb 2026

20:05

Venue

Parc des Princes

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Paris Saint Germain Win

88%

Paris Saint Germain

1.14

8%

Draw

11.89

4%

Metz

26.04

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

3 – 0

11.5%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

10.2%

Home win

4 – 0

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

3.38

Paris Saint Germain xG

Total xG

4.02

0.64

Metz xG

88%
Paris Saint GermainDrawMetz

1.14

88%

Home win

11.89

8%

Draw

26.04

4%

Away win

Goals Markets

91%

Over 1.5

1.10

9%

Under 1.5

11.11

76%

Over 2.5

1.32

24%

Under 2.5

4.17

57%

Over 3.5

1.75

43%

Under 3.5

2.33

37%

Over 4.5

2.70

63%

Under 4.5

1.59

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.18

54%

BTTS No

1.85

Clean Sheet

53%

Paris Saint Germain

1.90

3%

Metz

29.22

Win to Nil

46%

Paris Saint Germain

2.17

0%

Metz

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
1 6.1 3.9 1.3 0.3
2 10.2 6.6 2.1 0.5 0.1
3 11.5 7.4 2.4 0.5 0.1
4 9.7 6.3 2.0 0.4 0.1
5 6.6 4.2 1.4 0.3

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 3.375
λ Away (xG) 0.644
Total xG 4.019
League avg home goals 1.503
League avg away goals 1.209
Paris Saint Germain attack strength 1.563
Paris Saint Germain defence strength 0.652
Metz attack strength 0.817
Metz defence strength 1.437
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 22