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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sun 16 Mar 2025

19:45

Venue

Parc des Princes

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Paris Saint Germain Win

56%

Paris Saint Germain

1.77

22%

Draw

4.64

22%

Marseille

4.54

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.8%

Draw

2 – 0

7.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.16

Paris Saint Germain xG

Total xG

3.46

1.30

Marseille xG

56%
22%
22%
Paris Saint GermainDrawMarseille

1.77

56%

Home win

4.64

22%

Draw

4.54

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

86%

Over 1.5

1.16

14%

Under 1.5

7.14

67%

Over 2.5

1.49

33%

Under 2.5

3.03

46%

Over 3.5

2.17

54%

Under 3.5

1.85

27%

Over 4.5

3.70

73%

Under 4.5

1.37

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

65%

BTTS Yes

1.54

35%

BTTS No

2.85

Clean Sheet

27%

Paris Saint Germain

3.68

12%

Marseille

8.66

Win to Nil

15%

Paris Saint Germain

6.53

3%

Marseille

39.30

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.1 4.1 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
1 6.8 8.8 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.2
2 7.3 9.5 6.2 2.7 0.9 0.2
3 5.3 6.9 4.5 1.9 0.6 0.2
4 2.8 3.7 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.159
λ Away (xG) 1.304
Total xG 3.463
League avg home goals 1.461
League avg away goals 1.376
Paris Saint Germain attack strength 1.526
Paris Saint Germain defence strength 0.861
Marseille attack strength 1.101
Marseille defence strength 0.968
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59