Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain host Auxerre at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Parc des Princes this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Paris Saint Germain have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Paris Saint Germain hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Auxerre, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The historical record gives Paris Saint Germain a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 49% versus Auxerre 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 65% | Auxerre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.80 xG and Auxerre 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.131 / defence 0.933 | Auxerre attack 1.100 / defence 1.521. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.521 — this is suppressing Paris Saint Germain's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Paris Saint Germain games / 43 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 67% | Draw 18% | Auxerre 16%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Auxerre 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.80 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 70% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 67% | Draw 18% | Auxerre 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 70% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.80 / Auxerre 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.131 / def 0.933 | Auxerre attack 1.100 / def 1.521 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Auxerre xG
70%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Parc des Princes.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 67% chance of winning, Auxerre a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre?
Record (6 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 5W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Paris Saint Germain's attack at 1.13x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 2.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.71
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
4.15
1.35
Auxerre xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.71
18%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
6%
16.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
1%
105.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.35 for Auxerre, a combined total of 4.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.23 PPG on a 30W 6D 7L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 11W 11D 21L from 43 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.29 PPG from 21 outings (15W 3D 3L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 3W 6D 12L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.09 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 30W 6D 7L in their last 43 games (2.23 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Auxerre away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.29 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Auxerre in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Auxerre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 43%, Auxerre 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Paris Saint Germain and 52% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Auxerre in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 57% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 52% of Auxerre's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More French football predictions →