🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Paris FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Monaco.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Monaco 4-1 at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.06 xG and Monaco 1.98 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monaco landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.40 against Monaco attack 1.18 / defence 0.87, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 19% | Draw 22% | Monaco 59%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Paris FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 48%, Monaco 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Monaco's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.63 PPG, Monaco 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Monaco (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights