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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Paris FC and Lyon share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC and Lyon finished level at 3-3 at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.49 xG and Lyon 1.81 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lyon outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.34 against Lyon attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 32% | Draw 23% | Lyon 45%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 51%, Lyon 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Lyon's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.84 PPG, Lyon 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights