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Poisson rates Angers at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Paris FC welcome Angers to Stade Jean Bouin. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's home record at Stade Jean Bouin: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Angers have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Angers's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Paris FC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Paris FC, 2 for Angers and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Angers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Angers trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 54% versus Angers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 52% | Angers 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.18 xG and Angers 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.376 | Angers attack 0.837 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.256. Data: 18 Paris FC games / 52 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 31% | Draw 26% | Angers 43%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Angers 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Angers are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Paris FC 50% | Angers 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 0 | Angers 2W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Paris FC 3 – 4 Angers • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Paris FC 33% / Draw 0% / Angers 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 31% / draw 26% / away 43% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.63 (49% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 53% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Paris FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W • Angers (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L • Paris FC home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Angers away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • Form edge: Angers lead by 0.70 PPG (1.60 vs 0.90) • xG vs form (Paris FC): Poisson projects 1.18 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Angers): Poisson projects 1.45 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.8 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.63 (49% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Angers — Angers at 43% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 31% | Draw 26% | Angers 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Paris FC 1.18 / Angers 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.836 / def 1.376 | Angers attack 0.837 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Angers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Angers xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Angers kick off?
Paris FC vs Angers kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Stade Jean Bouin.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Angers?
Paris FC 0 - 0 Angers.
Where is Paris FC vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Angers part of?
Paris FC vs Angers is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 31% chance of winning, Angers a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Paris FC and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Angers?
• Record (3 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 0 | Angers 2W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Paris FC 3 – 4 Angers • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Paris FC 33% / Draw 0% / Angers 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 31% / draw 26% / away 43% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.63 (49% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 53% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Paris FC and Angers in?
• Paris FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W • Angers (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L • Paris FC home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Angers away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • Form edge: Angers lead by 0.70 PPG (1.60 vs 0.90) • xG vs form (Paris FC): Poisson projects 1.18 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Angers): Poisson projects 1.45 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.8 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.63 (49% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Angers — Angers at 43% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Paris FC vs Angers?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture