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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 20, as Nice and Stade Brestois 29 drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.65 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.32 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 45% | Draw 24% | Stade Brestois 29 31%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 58%, Stade Brestois 29 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.53 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights