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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lille.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Lille 2-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.73 xG and Lille 1.63 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lille landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Lille attack 1.38 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 41% | Draw 23% | Lille 36%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 60%, Lille 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Lille's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.72 PPG, Lille 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights