Nice vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Le Havre travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice at Allianz Riviera this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nice are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Nice, 2 for Le Havre and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Le Havre trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 60% versus Le Havre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 54% | Le Havre 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 2.12 xG and Le Havre 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.116 / defence 0.950 | Le Havre attack 1.113 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Data: 43 Nice games / 43 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 53% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 24%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Le Havre 4.17. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 70% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 53% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Nice 2.12 / Le Havre 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.116 / def 0.950 | Le Havre attack 1.113 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Nice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Le Havre xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Le Havre kick off?
Nice vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Allianz Riviera.
Where is Nice vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Le Havre part of?
Nice vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 53% chance of winning, Le Havre a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Nice and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Le Havre?
Record (6 meetings): Nice 3W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 2W.
What form are Nice and Le Havre in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.39
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Nice xG
Total xG
3.51
1.39
Le Havre xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
12%
8.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
3%
34.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Nice and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Nice and 1.39 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 14D 18L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 0.86 PPG from 43 outings (7W 16D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.09 PPG, Le Havre on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nice's home form reads 7W 10D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 0.62 points per game from 21 outings (2W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.95 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 20L in their last 43 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Le Havre away?
Nice's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.48 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nice's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nice
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Nice 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Le Havre?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 62%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nice) and 29% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 29% of games; Le Havre in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Nice's recent matches and 48% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nice's recent games and 29% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Le Havre tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.