Nice vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Nice take on Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Le Havre travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice at Allianz Riviera this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 1.00 PPG, Le Havre 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Nice, 2 for Le Havre and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Le Havre trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 56% versus Le Havre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 50% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.04 xG and Le Havre 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.759 / defence 0.900 | Le Havre attack 0.895 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Nice's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Nice games / 36 Le Havre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nice 32% | Draw 35% | Le Havre 34%. Fair-value odds: Nice 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Le Havre 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nice 50% | Le Havre 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 32% | Draw 35% | Le Havre 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Nice 1.04 / Le Havre 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.759 / def 0.900 | Le Havre attack 0.895 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Le Havre xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Le Havre kick off?
Nice vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Allianz Riviera.
Where is Nice vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Le Havre part of?
Nice vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 32% chance of winning, Le Havre a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nice and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Le Havre?
Record (6 meetings): Nice 3W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 2W.
What form are Nice and Le Havre in?
Nice (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
35%
2.89
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Nice xG
Total xG
2.12
1.08
Le Havre xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nice and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Nice and 1.08 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 13D 16L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.00 PPG from 36 outings (7W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 0.94 PPG, Le Havre on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nice's home form reads 4W 9D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (2W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.92 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Le Havre away?
Nice's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.24 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nice's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nice
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Nice 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Le Havre?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 53%, Le Havre 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Nice and 18% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 35% of games; Le Havre in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Nice's recent matches and 41% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nice's recent games and 18% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Le Havre tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.