Nice vs Le Havre – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.18
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Nice xG
Total xG
2.83
1.00
Le Havre xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
3%
30.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Nice and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Nice and 1.00 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.