🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Nice at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Auxerre encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Nice and Auxerre meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Nice have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Auxerre (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Nice's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Auxerre in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nice lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Auxerre winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Nice — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Auxerre — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 52% versus Auxerre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 46% | Auxerre 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 2.25 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.175 / defence 0.777 | Auxerre attack 0.931 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.402. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Nice's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Nice games / 25 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nice 65% | Draw 20% | Auxerre 15%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Auxerre 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Nice (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 60% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights