🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Nice 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Nice 0-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.52 xG and Angers 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against Angers attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 46% | Draw 25% | Angers 28%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 60%, Angers 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Angers's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Angers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights