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Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Angers 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Angers 2-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.42 xG and Angers 0.86 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Angers attack 0.68 / defence 0.96, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 50% | Draw 27% | Angers 23%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 48%, Angers 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Angers's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.63 PPG, Angers 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights