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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Strasbourg edge out Nantes 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Nantes 2-3 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.07 xG and Strasbourg 1.62 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Strasbourg outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against Strasbourg attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 25% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 50%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 44%, Strasbourg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Strasbourg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights