Nantes vs Rennes – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nantes's attack at 0.77x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.55
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.51
1.16
Rennes xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Nantes and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Nantes and 1.16 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.