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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Nice run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Nantes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Nantes 1-4 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.74 xG and Nice 1.44 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Nice outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.80 / defence 1.31 against Nice attack 0.90 / defence 1.44, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 45% | Draw 23% | Nice 32%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 44%, Nice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights