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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monaco cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Nantes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Nantes 3-5 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.24 xG and Monaco 1.09 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monaco outscored their 1.09 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Monaco attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 40% | Draw 28% | Monaco 32%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 42%, Monaco 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Monaco's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights