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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Angers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Montpellier.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Angers beat Montpellier 1-3 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.38 xG and Angers 1.15 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Angers outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.01 / defence 1.36 against Angers attack 0.65 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 41% | Draw 30% | Angers 30%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 58%, Angers 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Angers's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Montpellier (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights