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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 21 Sep 2025

16:15

Venue

Stade Louis II

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Monaco Win

77%

Monaco

1.29

13%

Draw

7.62

9%

Metz

10.62

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

8.2%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

8.2%

Home win

3 – 0

8.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

3.00

Monaco xG

Total xG

4.00

1.00

Metz xG

77%
13%
MonacoDrawMetz

1.29

77%

Home win

7.62

13%

Draw

10.62

9%

Away win

Goals Markets

91%

Over 1.5

1.10

9%

Under 1.5

11.11

76%

Over 2.5

1.32

24%

Under 2.5

4.17

57%

Over 3.5

1.75

43%

Under 3.5

2.33

37%

Over 4.5

2.70

63%

Under 4.5

1.59

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.66

40%

BTTS No

2.51

Clean Sheet

37%

Monaco

2.73

5%

Metz

20.09

Win to Nil

28%

Monaco

3.52

0%

Metz

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
1 5.5 5.5 2.8 0.9 0.2
2 8.2 8.2 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 8.2 8.2 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.1
4 6.2 6.2 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 3.7 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 3.000
λ Away (xG) 1.003
Total xG 4.003
League avg home goals 1.723
League avg away goals 1.230
Monaco attack strength 1.297
Monaco defence strength 0.982
Metz attack strength 0.831
Metz defence strength 1.342
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 4