Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Sun 5 Apr 2026

19:45

Venue

Stade Louis II

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Monaco Win

51%

Monaco

1.95

23%

Draw

4.38

26%

Marseille

3.88

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.1%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

1 – 0

7.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.90

Monaco xG

Total xG

3.20

1.30

Marseille xG

51%
23%
26%
MonacoDrawMarseille

1.95

51%

Home win

4.38

23%

Draw

3.88

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

62%

Over 2.5

1.61

38%

Under 2.5

2.63

40%

Over 3.5

2.50

60%

Under 3.5

1.67

22%

Over 4.5

4.55

78%

Under 4.5

1.28

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.61

38%

BTTS No

2.64

Clean Sheet

27%

Monaco

3.65

15%

Marseille

6.71

Win to Nil

14%

Monaco

7.11

4%

Marseille

26.00

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.1 5.3 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1
1 7.8 10.1 6.5 2.8 0.9 0.2
2 7.4 9.6 6.2 2.7 0.9 0.2
3 4.7 6.1 3.9 1.7 0.6 0.1
4 2.2 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.903
λ Away (xG) 1.296
Total xG 3.199
League avg home goals 1.451
League avg away goals 1.203
Monaco attack strength 1.209
Monaco defence strength 0.965
Marseille attack strength 1.116
Marseille defence strength 1.084
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 61