Monaco 3-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Louis-II to face Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monaco's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monaco at Stade Louis-II this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Louis-II. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Louis-II this season.
Le Havre (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Monaco's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Monaco, 0 for Le Havre and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Le Havre — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 53% versus Le Havre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 58% | Le Havre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.36 xG and Le Havre 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.897 / defence 0.840 | Le Havre attack 0.892 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.326. Data: 38 Monaco games / 38 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 42% | Draw 33% | Le Havre 24%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Le Havre 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 50% | Le Havre 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 42% | Draw 33% | Le Havre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Monaco 1.36 / Le Havre 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.897 / def 0.840 | Le Havre attack 0.892 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Monaco (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Le Havre xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Le Havre kick off?
Monaco vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Le Havre?
Monaco 3 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Monaco vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Le Havre part of?
Monaco vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 42% chance of winning, Le Havre a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monaco and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Monaco 0W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Monaco and Le Havre in?
Monaco (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Monaco vs Le Havre?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Monaco's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.89x) against Monaco's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
42%
2.35
33%
3.02
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.36
0.99
Le Havre xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Monaco and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Monaco and 0.99 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monaco's recent record stands at 23W 8D 7L from 38 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 18L across 38 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 2W 9D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 23W 8D 7L in their last 38 games (2.03 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Le Havre away?
Monaco's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.95 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Monaco or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Le Havre in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Monaco
4
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Monaco have won 2, Le Havre have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Le Havre 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Le Havre?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 42%, Le Havre 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Monaco) and 47% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Le Havre in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Monaco's recent matches and 47% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Monaco's recent games and 47% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Le Havre tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Le Havre 3-1 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.36 xG and Le Havre 0.99 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 42% | Draw 33% | Le Havre 24%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 58%, Le Havre 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.