🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Metz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Metz 1-3 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.94 xG and Paris FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Paris FC outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.75 / defence 1.35 against Paris FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.86, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 26% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 43%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 57%, Paris FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Paris FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.30 PPG, Paris FC 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights