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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Marseille run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Metz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Metz 0-3 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.85 xG and Marseille 1.10 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Metz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Marseille outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.60 / defence 0.95 against Marseille attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 28% | Draw 31% | Marseille 41%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 55%, Marseille 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Marseille's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.72 PPG, Marseille 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights