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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Toulouse 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Toulouse 3-2 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 1.50 xG and Toulouse 1.48 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Marseille beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Toulouse attack 1.16 / defence 0.85, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 38% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 37%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 56%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Toulouse's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Marseille 1.62 PPG, Toulouse 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights