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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Sat 17 May 2025

20:00

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

59%

Marseille

1.69

19%

Draw

5.31

22%

Rennes

4.58

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

8.4%

Home win

Most likely

3 – 1

7.1%

Home win

1 – 1

6.7%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.54

Marseille xG

Total xG

4.06

1.52

Rennes xG

59%
19%
22%
MarseilleDrawRennes

1.69

59%

Home win

5.31

19%

Draw

4.58

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

91%

Over 1.5

1.10

9%

Under 1.5

11.11

77%

Over 2.5

1.30

23%

Under 2.5

4.35

58%

Over 3.5

1.72

42%

Under 3.5

2.38

38%

Over 4.5

2.63

62%

Under 4.5

1.61

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

72%

BTTS Yes

1.38

28%

BTTS No

3.61

Clean Sheet

22%

Marseille

4.60

8%

Rennes

12.64

Win to Nil

13%

Marseille

7.74

2%

Rennes

57.94

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.7 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
1 4.4 6.7 5.1 2.6 1.0 0.3
2 5.5 8.4 6.4 3.3 1.2 0.4
3 4.7 7.1 5.4 2.8 1.1 0.3
4 3.0 4.5 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.2
5 1.5 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.537
λ Away (xG) 1.525
Total xG 4.062
League avg home goals 1.448
League avg away goals 1.390
Marseille attack strength 1.553
Marseille defence strength 0.957
Rennes attack strength 1.147
Rennes defence strength 1.128
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 67 / 67